Make your brain hurt.

I still can't parse this no matter how many times it's explained to me.


It's simply based on the probability that you were likely wrong in your first guess, but it's also key to understand that as interesting as probabilities are, probability and reality never directly align. It's actually a dangerous logic to follow, as this is the type of logic that convinces many gamblers that their continued stream of bad luck actually implies they're more likely to be lucky in their next bet. If I were to place two cards down on the table and you had ten chances of guessing which was the joker, your logical calculations would derive that you should be correct 5 times and wrong 5 times, but this will rarely actually translate into reality.

One could argue that one of the biggest contributors to the earnings of gambling institutes is the danger of treating probability as identical real-life result.
 

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