The Shifting Sands V3: Spring in the Desert [Closed]

[Amfleet]

The year is 2010.

Since the end of the Ottomans, the times of peace the Middle East has known have been short-lived, held together by treaties between iron-fisted rivals, foreign interventions, and war weariness that can never be passed down to the next generation. In spite of this cycle of violence, many of the dictatorships and dynasties that make up the region have managed to abide over the years with surprising levels of internal stability, as kings and strongmen use their characteristic brutal methods to keep a grip on restive populations that grow weary with the lack of economic and social development their regimes offer.

There are signs that the cat has begun to creep out of the bag. The calamitous US occupation of Iraq has laid bare divisions between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds that are also present in several neighboring countries. The increasing universality of social media creates methods of expressing grievances never before available in repressive states. Even in the most modernized nations of Turkey and Israel, democratic governance still leaves huge portions of the electorate unrepresented, unsatisfied, or both.

Can you prevent this bomb from detonating? Or will you be the one to press the plunger?

Rules:

1. Don’t be a dick. This means not harassing players personally for their choices in game beyond the levels of usual banter.
2. Communicate. The Discord server is always lively and the best facilitator for all your negotiations. Participation with your fellow players will be critical for your success.
3. Be realistic. Do your research so that you know your limits in terms of technology and politics.
4. Don’t metagame. This includes stuff like shenanigans about who gets to see your turn or basing policy on your feelings about the member playing a certain nation.
5. Have fun! This will be strictly enforced.

How to write a turn:

Each turn will span 6 months, starting on 1 January 2010. You will be allotted 10 command lines to spend on your country during this time period. Please DM your command lines to me on Discord or RPN. The categories are as follows:

Diplomacy: Your interactions with player nations and factions. These are subject to my confirmation with the other player.
External: Your interactions with non-player nations/factions. You can propose deals with NPCs to me via DM if you’d like to test the waters.
Domestic: Your interactions with your populace- laws, social policy, and economic development.
Military: Your interactions with your military. Train equip, and FIGHT!
Technology: Send me a general area of civil or military technology you’d like to improve. You may have no more than one of these per turn. Don’t pick anything outside your nation or group’s reasonable ability to develop it.
Espionage: Any of the above you wouldn’t like me to publish in the public turn, as well as assassinations and other subversive activities. Results will be given to you by DM.

Players: (8/8)

TheGriff Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Zillamaster55 Syrian Arab Republic
joshuadim Israel
Fighting Monk Kingdom of Morocco
mausedpotatos Islamic Republic of Iran
Malos Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
RayPurchase Arab Republic of Egypt
Moose762 Kurdistan Worker's Party

 

[TheGriff]

 

[Amfleet]

Turn Zero: Smoke on the Horizon





Egypt today shows some of the greatest developmental potential of any country in the region, and perhaps the world. With a highly diversified economy, large population, and good relations with western nations, it may be that the only thing holding it back is its own self-described “Pharaonic” political system. In the 29-year period since Anwar Sadat’s assassination gave rise to the rule of President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has been in an uninterrupted state of emergency. The youth of Egypt have never known the freedoms that they theoretically have under the constitution. Mubarak’s regime attempts to justify this against the background of increasing aggression by islamic extremists and the shadowy underground spectre of the banned Muslim Brotherhood. Ripping off the bandage of the dictatorship to seek a new cure could lead to clashes between the idealistic youth and religious conservatives, spilling more blood in the process.

It should not be forgotten that any change in the form of the Egyptian state will almost certainly need to go through the military. In any time of foreign or domestic crisis, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces may convene to take matters into its own hands. Its well-equipped and relatively experienced soldiers stand ready to enforce Egyptian policy abroad, and it is no stranger to enforcing the SCAF’s will at home, though there is no way to know just how far they are willing to go if the fight is against Egyptian brothers.



The Islamic Republic enters its fourth decade already reeling from violently suppressed protests after an election marred by irregularities favoring tone-deaf incumbent Ahmadinejad over the most reformist candidates allowed to run. Matters were not totally pleasant beforehand either, as the effects of international sanctions from a nuclear program that officially does not exist keep the economy perpetually bogged down. The new administration in the United States has hinted that it might be willing to offer a reset, but many of the theocratic elite would see this as compromising the integrity of the Revolution.

Most of these elites come from the true elephant in the room, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. More than just an elite formation of the military that reserves the best equipment and most motivated soldiers for itself, the IRGC is effectively a deep state that controls up to a third of the nation’s economy via business trusts run by its personnel. Though it has yet to butt heads with the clerical system headed by the Ayatollah, should there be a struggle for control of the Islamic Republic’s direction, the smart money will be on the elite troops of the IRGC and up to a million Basij paramilitaries at their command.

In spite of the problem they pose for the Iranian leadership, the Revolutionary Guards open the door to numerous possibilities for expanding Iranian influence across the region, wherever a local Shiite presence presents itself. With its most hated enemy hanging from a noose supplied by a war-weary United States, Iran finds itself in position to cash in on any instability in the region, so long as its leaders don’t forget to guard home plate.



Israel enters the new decade on a relatively strong footing for a nation that has spent most of its existence in imminent peril of some form or another. The second Intifada has passed and the Israelis have spent the intervening peace walling off the West Bank, to only the powerless objections of international NGOs and the occasional protest artist. The latest iteration of the Knesset is a right-wing coalition in no hurry to change its positions regarding the Palestinian issue, and as long as rocket launches from Gaza continue, it seems no more likely that the civilian populace will change their minds about how their neighbors are to be dealt with.

Indeed, it is quite easy to see why so few in the population are willing to make any significant change in course. The Jewish state is riding high in this tumultuous region with a fully modern economy and a highly educated populace that gives it greater potential for innovation than any of its regional rivals, allowing for service-based prosperity on land poor in natural resources.

No matter the lack of resources, the Arab world will continue to covet Israeli soil to right what they consider to be a great wrong of history. Their many attempts to date have yet to overcome the steel technology and iron will of the Israeli Defense Forces, leaving the IDF all the more experience for their efforts. Should old foes break their treaties of peace, however, Israel could still be in great peril. If that day comes, Israeli policymakers allude to a “Samson Option” that could bring everything tumbling down...



The average Saudi citizen could be described as participating in a vast social experiment in which they are made increasingly wealthy while simultaneously less and less free. As it basks in massive per capita oil wealth unthinkable even to westerners, the absolute monarchy repeatedly draws the ire of human rights organizations as its religious police enforce medieval restrictions banning everything from apostasy to movie theaters, all of which are made all the worse should you have the misfortune of being born there as a female. For ages, the feasibility of this system played on the relative isolation of Saudi society, whose main interactions with the outsiders came from marginalized guest workers.

The digital age is slowly breaking down the illusions created by the state, as the internet allows Saudis to witness the liberal pleasures of the outside world. Large swathes of the population hunger to bring back the reforms derailed by the Grand Mosque Seizure some 30 years ago. Adding to the urgency of their demands, it is increasingly uncertain how long the oil wealth will be able to placate the restive youth as the world becomes more conscious of the environmental impact of oil and appears to be drifting away from their dependence on Saudi crude.

If it were not enough to be responsible for his own subjects, the Saudi monarch takes on the responsibility of a major leader in the greater Islamic world, and has enormous power to influence Sunni policy almost as much as the hated Ayatollah guides that of the Shiites. Should one of its neighbors descend into violence, the King’s armies could well be called upon to uphold order and defeat Iranian subversion. Though decades more modern than their longtime rival, Saudi forces are inexperienced and often maligned by their western allies for incompetence, and these allies are increasingly tired of fighting so far away for resources they depend on less and less.



The Moroccan Kingdom stands as a model of growth and stability in the region, detached from the ethnic divisions and poor economic management endemic in its African neighbors. At least, this is true for Morocco proper. In the “Southern Provinces” region, the Moroccan state remains locked in a frozen conflict with the Polisario Front, with the two sides watching each other from across a sandy berm since 1991. Since then, the only reminders of the conflict have been occasional civil disturbances in the Moroccan-controlled territories of the south, which renewed only a few years ago. Were a wider Middle Eastern protest movement to be born, a new Independence Intifada could emerge with it. Such a movement could be crushed by the military, but questions over the possible reaction of the United Nations and major trade partners have led the monarch to hold a steady hand.

There are plenty of other concerns for the people of Morocco that could challenge the status quo. Despite maintaining economic growth throughout the global recession due to a booming agricultural sector, wages remain low and the standard of living well beneath those of the European nations that are just a stone’s throw away across the Strait of Gibraltar. Furthermore, the King walks a tightrope between democracy and absolute rule, holding vast powers to legislate while simultaneously delegating them to elected representatives. Any overreach or misstep by the monarch could be seen as breaking the unwritten social contract he has with his subjects.



While the four-decade rule of Brother Leader and Guide of the Revolution Muammar Gaddafi have seen Libya turned into an international pariah, recent years have seen a dramatic about-face. His many bizarre and dangerous adventures ranging from nuclear weapons development to sponsoring terrorists have been put aside in favor of western rapprochement and pan-African projects, but much of the damage is irreversible so long as he remains in power. Nevertheless, Gaddafi has come a long way from the days of butting heads with the west and leaders all across Africa, placing technocrats in key governmental positions and courting far more international investment than Libya has ever known in its independent history.

This is still far from a comeback story. The country is racked by corruption, and unemployment has skyrocketed to approach 30%. A ban on construction of new housing means that many families who could afford to rent or buy a new home have three generations cramped under one roof simply because there is nowhere for them to go. All of these issues are amplified in the underdeveloped region of Cyrenaica in the country’s east, far from Gaddafi’s lavish home in Tripoli. Here especially, underground protest music and literature is commonplace as the people vent against their neglect. Should they grow bolder, there are many who fear that the aging Brother Leader may let out some anger of his own.



Syria is hanging onto the edge by a fingernail as its neighbor to the east seems to prove the non-viability of nations created by the imperial sword. Already it has inherited one and a half million refugees from war-torn Iraq who are mostly unemployed and still seem a long way from being able to return home. Straining their conditions further, climate change has led to an ongoing drought, driving up food prices and sending farmers into the cities to look for work in an economy whose botched attempt to transition to services leaves little work to be had. All of the same sectarian and ethnic lines that exist in Iraq exist in Syria, just awaiting a power vacuum that would see men who never considered themselves to be brothers set against each other.

With so many different groups who would leap at any chance to put the Syrian state under the knife, any unrest could quickly turn to a struggle for survival of the nation in its current form. The border-crossing lines between Arab, Alawite, and Kurd mean that Syria may not even be the only victim of its own struggles.

Fresh-faced compared to his regional peers, Bashar Al-Assad will have to hold this nation together to prove he is his father’s equal. Whether he will use the same brutal tactics remains to be seen, but with the backing of foreign allies and an outsize military built to fight the Arab Cold War, there is little incentive to back down.



Terrorists to some, freedom fighters to others, the PKK has for decades waged an intense Marxist struggle in the name of a united and independent Kurdistan directed primarily at the Turkish state. Throughout the 80s and 90s, it carried out bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings across Turkey and beyond. The Noughts, on the other hand, have represented a low point in the organization’s history. Syrian support has dried up, Saddam has been overthrown, and their founder has sat it all out in a Turkish prison cell. The emergence of Iraqi Kurdistan as a highly autonomous region has provided them with a cross-border hideout with plenty of sympathizers to be found, but the conservative Erbil government wants nothing to do with an organization that has been proscribed by its western backers.

While its outlook may look bleak for the moment, PKK members remain feverishly devoted to their ideals and will continue the struggle no matter how hard the Turks push back. Of the four nations that host significant Kurdish populations, only one would need to experience a power vacuum for the liberation struggle to go above ground and put Öcalan’s vision into practice. The possibility of such events paving the way for an independent Kurdish land uncorrupted by capitalism is growing by the month, but it may be up to the PKK to provide the final spark.

TURNS DUE FRIDAY, MAY 29th!

 

[Amfleet]

TURN 1: Nothing is Written



1 January- 30 June 2010



Regional Events

-A diplomatic crisis erupts between Turkey and Libya after the latter declares the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to be “Fellow Revolutionaries” and the rightful government of Kurdish regions in Turkey, providing them an embassy in Tobruk. In turn, the Turks up their campaign to hunt down the PKK in totality and begins pressuring the international community to increase their sanctions against Libya

-Longtime Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak shocks the nation by initiating a detailed one-year transition to democracy and naming himself “Interim President.” The timeline includes many controversial measures, including the continued banning of the Muslim Brotherhood and open questions about the future role of the military as it plays its cards close to its chest

-After a review of the costs involved with its lengthy occupation of the Southern Provinces, the King of Morocco makes a dramatic policy reversal and offers up a referendum on independence. Moroccan nationalists protest vigorously at this move, burning tires in Rabat to express their disapproval, but the hand of the King keeps them from escalating things any further. In turn, the Polisario Front eyes the referendum with suspicion, agreeing to carry it out on territory that they control but demanding measures be taken to ensure the result is produced by fair means. With the majority of its claimed territory under Moroccan control, any ballot interference would be in the nationalists’ favor

-In an address on 12 March, Hosni Mubarak stuns the country by announcing his intention to “retire” from the presidency effective the same date next year after elections that will transition the country to democratic governance. Not yet ready to relinquish power, he instead takes the title of “Interim President” and prepares to guide the country through this promised transition. To silence his doubters, he requests and receives a UN mission that will monitor the vote as it takes place. This does not mean it will necessarily be a neutral vote, as the influential Muslim Brotherhood is to remain outlawed during the election, eliminating Islamist options favored by huge portions of the country. They dare not protest yet, not while Mubarak and the emergency laws remain in place, but once both are gone it is anyone’s guess how they will respond

-Air Marshal Mubarak recognizes that he will have to find a suitable position for his comrades in the military once this transition is complete, and meets with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantai to detail his plans. The meeting is tense as Mubarak signals a clearly reduced role for the military, offering immunity from prosecution for any past crimes committed by members of the armed forces and a mandate to “protect the democratic process from undue external and internal influences.” While it seems they will accept this deal, there are questions about how they will interpret this new mandate

-Perhaps expecting unrest during or after the elections, new funds are allocated to the National Police to provide additional training and increase recruiting from minority populations. The Berbers in particular are recruited in the hundreds, with the idea that their knowledge of rural communities will give them an edge in overcoming radicals operating within these islamist-leaning areas

-In addition to this, Unit 777 is reactivated and given a priority to focus on defeating domestic terrorism, though they are not quite ready for action and spend time training with French GIGN operators at their classified base, preparing for use as an elite force meant to offer the same capabilities as the GIGN and other western special forces groups

-Some of these efforts to fully pacify the country ahead of the democratic transition meet stumbling blocks. In the Sinai, where troop levels are maintained via agreement with Israel, negotiations on bringing in more troops to suppress islamist activity in the region break down, the Israelis insisting that this action is unnecessary and counterproductive to their relations. A minor diplomatic spat ensues as Egypt retaliates by drawing troops away from its side of the border with the Gaza strip to redistribute them around areas essential to its economy, such as the Suez Canal facilities and tourist sites like Sharm El-Sheik. As predicted, this causes a spike in smuggling into Gaza, and it will remain to be seen if the Israelis will blink or take matters into their own hands

-Legal efforts to suppress radicalism are also carried out as new protections for Coptic Christians, the Shia Muslim minority, and Bedouin roaming rights are quickly rubber stamped by the House of Representatives. These measures increase Mubarak’s popularity with these groups substantially, leading them to call on the president to support a similar successor in the elections, an idea that has the growing number of “independent” islamist politicians seething

-After years of design competition, contracts for the Great Egyptian Museum are awarded by the Ministry of Culture, allowing construction to begin. Planned to be the largest archaeological museum in the world, the new museum will go toe to toe with other great historical museums of the world such as the Louvre and Hermitage

-Egyptian diplomats go on a charm offensive with western nations to try and court economic aid and increase the nation’s international standing as a key ally in the War on Terror. As Egypt’s efforts in this field are already seemingly more or less successful, and with the American Congress feeling uncomfortable over the spat with Israel, these appeals are largely ignored. The exception is France, which in its deal to send GIGN trainers, also agrees to sell two dozen Rafale multirole fighters, with the aging Air Marshal Mubarak insistently riding along in a training version for old times’ sake before agreeing to the purchase

-Also mindful of the strength of the Air Defense Forces, arrangements are made to upgrade existing stocks of S-125 Pechora SAM systems to the Pechora 2M standard. The upgraded missiles systems can engage multiple targets from a single launcher, and at greater range. This also gives them the ability to target small and low-flying cruise missiles, an important capability as wars are increasingly fought from standoff range

-Seeking to take advantage of its massive natural gas reserves as the world attempts to bridge a gap between fossil fuels and renewables, the Petroleum Ministry begins handing out subsidies for gas extraction and exploration. Much of the focus is shifted offshore as the promise of vast reserves in Egyptian territorial waters has prospectors relentlessly scanning and prodding the seabed for the valuable gas

-Sporadic protests against the previous summer’s election results continue into early spring, egged on by increased activity from domestic and foreign social media accounts. In response, temporary boosts in policing are made more permanent through increased funding to the NAJA police force. For now, this round of protests seems to have settled and Ahmedinejad claims Iran is fully united under his leadership

-With the situation now under his control, Ahmedinejad goes to the Supreme Leader and receives his blessing on a major subsidy reform plan. Instead of doling out food and fuel subsidies wholesale, these subsidies are to be wound down in favor of targeted government assistance programs. The government hopes to end wasteful use of food and fuel, while encouraging public transportation in the process. There are criticism of the plans, not only from those who see their fuel prices increase, but opponents of the regime denied their fair share of the new payments for their politics

-Iran also takes new steps to increase its levels of autarky as American-led sanctions continue to suppress its economic growth. Much of the money not going to subsidies is instead provided to an industrialization program to replace imported goods with domestic substitutes. Several factories break ground for production of items such as soaps, and Iran looks to expand its ability to refine oil rather than just extract it

-As part of this process, several important steps are made in the field of agriculture. Firstly, new freshwater conservation measures are made to ensure more water is available for agriculture and consumers, with leaks given priority for maintenance among other measures. Secondly, the Ayatollah issues a Fatwa that declares GMO foods are to be considered clean within certain limits, allowing Iranian scientists to identify and breed several drought and vermin resistant staples

-With fears of major chaos in Iraq spilling across the border as the United States prepares to pull out of the country, new border posts and additional troops are put into place to ensure refugees do not swarm the country and hide extremists in their midst. With the government implementing more targeted charity programs in place of its past subsidies, it becomes clear that it is viewing any uptick in Iraqi refugees as a potential liability rather than a potential asset

-Iranian intelligence officials publicly accuse Mossad agents of being behind several acts of disruption in Iran, including a pipeline fire and a series of brief power outages in Tabriz, leading government hardliners to condemn Israel and endorse greater anti-zionist action. Leading clerics also accuse the Israelis of being behind an uptick in anti-regime social media postings in Iran and abroad as a psychological warfare program. The accusations make little headway in foreign media, as most dismiss this as typical bluster between the two sides

-Though relations with the United States have been going through a tricky period as the Obama administration has forced Netanyahu to accept a two-state solution and a freeze on new settlements remains, millions of dollars in military and political aid continues to flow into Israel, primarily to be spent on American military hardware. Intense lobbying and strong public relations ensure that the USA and indeed most western nations will continue to view any human rights issues as mere footnotes to their critical strategic interests in the Jewish state

-Both money and political capital from the recent concessions are spent in a big way to purchase a pair of Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers for the Israeli Navy. Displacing seven times the volume of the Sa’ar 5-class corvettes, these ships, the INS Kidon and Romach, will offer a tremendous amount of additional firepower to the Navy once they can be put into service at the end of the year. Integrating the ships poses a significant logistical challenge, as Israel is unable to purchase the Tomahawk cruise missiles they utilize and must substitute them with Popeye Turbo missiles. It also leads to the construction of a massive floating drydock at Haifa, which will allow the ships to be fitted out one by one

-While these ships will soon be able to ply the seas and take the fight to any aggressor far away, Israel’s main concern remains securing its immediate domain. With its enemies largely reliant on rockets and other standoff weapons, one of its longest-running initiatives has been the quest for a rapid missile defense to supplant the PATRIOT system with greater defense against short range projectiles. That solution is the Iron Dome, which sees its first successful tests early in the year against replica Qassam rockets. Though the current threat level is low, the IDF makes haste deploying Iron Dome stations at sensitive points near the borders, forcing militants to either increase the size of their barrages at great expense or seek other tactics

-Such weapons are only possible thanks to Israel’s sophisticated technology sector, unmatched in the region and rivalling Silicon Valley giants abroad. To maintain this edge, tech entrepreneurs are given massive tax breaks and direct subsidies for hiring and purchasing resources, resulting in several making claims to this new cash flow. It seems Israel is going the Airbus route to give its companies the edge

-One of the first startups to profit from this initiative is Lightning Motors of Tel Aviv, a producer of battery-electric vehicles whose Thunderflash vehicle is designed as a versatile performance vehicle for the middle market, directly targeting the emerging Tesla Motors in the US but creating a car that can be used as a daily driver rather than just a roadster for showing off

-Another way Israel harnesses its technology is with continued expansion of solar farms to harvest bountiful sunlight from above. Solar panels designed domestically continue to see incremental improvements, and the government hopes this will hope spur the adoption of electric vehicles and wean the country off of a fossil fuels industry dominated by potential foes

-The Birthright Israel program has long been an instrument of Israeli soft power in western countries as the government and NGOs coordinate to bring young adults on sponsored trips to Israel. With the consent of parents, this program is now expanded to high school juniors and seniors, with a special tour that adds in visits to Israeli universities with the idea that bringing them to Israel for education with the offer of citizenship on hand could help grow the population and increase foreign interest in Israel’s continued prosperity

-After a breakdown in negotiations with Egypt regarding troops levels in the Sinai, Egyptian troops are pulled away from their border with the Gaza Strip. Predictably, this undermines their joint blockade and leads to a spike in smuggling into Gaza, which the IDF fears could be including armaments or other contraband

-Iranian intelligence officials publicly accuse Mossad agents of being behind several acts of disruption in Iran, including a pipeline fire and a series of brief power outages in Tabriz, leading Iranian hardliners to condemn Israel and endorse greater anti-zionist action. Leading clerics also accuse the Israelis of being behind an uptick in anti-regime social media postings in Iran and abroad as a psychological warfare program. The accusations make little headway in foreign media, as most dismiss this as typical bluster between the two sides

-Marking the fifth year of his reign, King Abdullah commissions a Royal Survey in which his closest advisors are ordered to feel out the attitudes of the populace towards reforms in whatever ways they deem appropriate. Travelling to by car and helicopter to every corner of the nation and attempting to identify as many segments of society as possible, they ultimately find that a significant majority of the nation is reformist in one way or another, but what they want often conflicts with the desires of other groups or contradicts them outright

-As for the popular topics of reform, interviewees in the oil-rich Eastern Province most commonly request a separate constitution and legislature from the rest of the country. In urban areas, the right of women to drive and mix with men in a workplace setting are the most common topics. No women were actually interviewed, though their male minders find it a burden to constantly chaperone them. These urbanites generally seem inclined to have religious laws loosened to allow things like movies and music to return to some extent along with a weakening of the hated mutawa religious police. However, discussions with tribal leaders and common folk in the rural desert make clear that they still view these things as satanic deviations, and would rather the country become more religiously strict than allow it to keep drifting towards modernity, however slowly

-One sticking point for the hardline conservatives interviewed is the presence of foreign troops on Saudi soil. Many of them object to the presence of Gulf Cooperation Council soldiers, demanding they return to Bahrain, but are utterly incensed at the continued presence of American soldiers at their compound in Riyadh. Uninterested in their objections, the King instead offers them a greater advisory role where they can speak freely to Sultan Al-Kahir. After some initial hesitation, they quickly begin to speak uncomfortable truths to the Defense Minister, particularly regarding the lack of unit cohesion and inability to handle tactical leadership at the level of junior officers, as well as the difficulties the armed forces have in sharing information with each other. All this, and they have yet to meet any senior officers

-There is one question the advisors do not dare to ask, which is the feelings of these varied peoples towards the House of Saud itself. This question troubles the aging King, for despite the insistence of the princes in his court that his people still love him as a father, he may never really know for sure

-An economic survey is also ordered, with the rare move of bringing in foreign consultants to discuss possible investment and growth opportunities to ensure the Saudi Kingdom’s prosperity can endure. It is clear to all that the nation’s long-term survival means diversification, but there are many disagreements on what types of diversification can be achieved. Despite its vast beaches, the conservative culture leaves virtually no tourism potential beyond that provided by the Hajj, and the hot desert can only be viable for agriculture with expensive terraforming. There is always the possibility of seeding industry, but the nation is not known as a breeder of innovation for a variety of reasons.

-Until a consensus can be reached, the King will need to buy time and save funds to invest in whatever future projects may emerge. The advisors suggest an unprecedented step, selling shares in Saudi Aramco, the massive state oil concern that dominates the economy. The royal family would never be comfortable with anything less than total control over this goose that lays their golden eggs, but many in the court begin to warm to the idea that selling off 49% could raise significant funds to secure the post-oil future

-There is some advancement in the field of oil extraction that will also help to buy time before the country runs dry of oil, however. By integrating oil exploration devices into an underground oil probe and paring it with imported tunnelling devices, Saudi Aramco develops its first “Snake” oil extractor that is able to get more out of oil fields by using its geological sensors to automatically detect and move to areas of an oil field that have not been fully extracted. This will increase the amount of the nation’s oil reserves substantially, but it may not matter if the world eventually abandons oil as its primary energy source

-Not one to be left out of local trends, HRH Mohammed VI announces a sweeping policy change on his nation’s attitudes towards the Western Sahara question. With administration of the region continuing to drag on the governmental purse, he instead takes a gamble on a referendum that will either see his rule there legitimized or the Moroccan grip on the region released for good. In fact two referendums will be held, both with the same question, first this December and next at the end of 2011. The Polisario Front agrees to host this referendum on their territory, but views it with suspicion, while Moroccan nationalists protest the possibility of a withdrawal vigorously, but agree to wait until the result for any “further action”

-Contributing to the suspicions of the rebels are continued investments in the Southern Provinces that the Polisario Front sees as attempts to buy the referendum result. Fishing companies in the region receive loans with generous terms to increase their processing capacity with new and expanded facilities, further increasing their ties to the government in Rabat. In all provinces, independent and organized fishermen are granted the chance to petition for a distribution from a central Royal Fisheries Fund for the purposes of acquiring new boats and equipment. A boom in fishing seems to be on the horizon, and concerns the waters may soon become overfished mount among environmental activists

-Aside from fishing, the general food processing and minerals industries become a target of government growth schemes. With booming agriculture, the King seeks to lower food prices and make the agricultural system more efficient by domestically processing all foods that are harvested domestically. Within the mining industry, Antimony is specifically targeted as many believe its significance to microelectronics will increase in the coming years. Therefore, several state-controlled mines are built in the Southern Provinces, which will continue to ensure they are tied to Morocco for years to come, and may become a point of contention in the scenario a newly independent Western Sahara should decide to nationalize them

-With many government-backed construction projects such as these ongoing, a National Employment Relief program is instituted to bring the unemployed off the streets and into these construction projects. Though not all find a position to be filled and the level of funding does little to address the overall abysmal wages nationwide, the relief is significant and it helps more citizens to at least get by

-The King also announces the most significant educational reforms in the nation’s modern history, primarily aimed at overcoming long standing illiteracy, with a literacy rate that still lags far behind several nearby countries. The crux of his solution is to send teachers, often compensated volunteers, deep into the most remote desert settlements to teach. Accompanying this, libraries of some scale are constructed and given publicity in every municipality of the country, with Arabic and Berber language books stocking the shelves. Even in tiny isolated communities where a library building is impractical, shelves of books for borrowing are set up in post offices or medical clinics to ensure at least some level of access

-Language is another significant piece of the reform, the parliament agrees to a proposal to elevate the Amazigh language of the Berbers to an equal level with Arabic, a significant advancement for equal treatment with the Arabs. Schools are to create trilingual language standards, in which all children will be taught Arabic and Berber, alongside a choice of English, French, or Spanish. Even more significantly, the education system will now be compulsory until 16 instead of 13, a significant investment in the future of Moroccan youth

-A longtime covert supporter of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Muammar Gaddafi takes the unprecedented step of overtly endorsing the PKK as fellow revolutionaries in the global socialist movement and the legitimate representatives of all Kurdish peoples, allowing them an embassy in Tobruk. This is a major boon to the PKK as it provides them the first place where they can operate overtly and significant diplomatic support, but there is seemingly no gain for the Libyans, yet. Turkey is infuriated, severing all ties and forbidding trade in Libyan goods, which makes a minor impact. More significant are threats from several western powers, including the United States, to once again designate Libya as a state sponsor of terror and sanction its oil if it does not back down in the near future. No matter what happens, Gaddafi seems prepared to go it alone to support his ally if necessary

-In a way, this spat helps to divert international media attention from another new diplomatic adventure from the Guide of the Revolution, which is a renewed push to export the Third International Theory. This mostly consists of pamphlet handouts to groups of meetings of socialists, particularly in Africa, South America, and Asia. While the ideas gain little traction, in no small part due to the theory’s attitudes on women and the general reputation of the Libyans, the campaign has at least spread awareness of the Green Book and its ideas

-The diplomatic crisis also helps to bury the ongoing crisis between Libya and Switzerland, as the Swiss continue to accuse the Gaddafi family of using their territory for corrupt practices. Two Swiss businessmen remain in Libyan custody, and as concerns for their welfare grow, trade relations break down entirely and Swiss vaccines and medicines no longer enter the country

-As tensions rise with the Europeans, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi raises a new paramilitary force to protect his father’s political system. Mirrored after the Iranian Basij, the Libyan Popular Vanguard (الطليعة الشعبية الليبية, al-Talieat al-Shaebiat al-Liybia), (alternatively nicknamed the Lions of the Desert (أسود الصحراء, 'Aswad al-Sahra') after resistance leader Omar al-Mukhtar), is designed to focus on internal security, particularly the popular councils, freeing up regular troops for duties elsewhere. These paramilitaries typically receive hand-me-downs from the military, which purchases thousands of new AK-103 assault rifles for its own troops, lightening the load soldiers will be asked to bear in combat

-Symbolic actions against a Europe-dominated past are taken as well, all of these falling in the realm of language. An official plan is put into practice in the schools that will over time replace Italian loanwords with Arabic or Berber terms with similar meaning. More immediately, cities and villages across the nation are renamed to better match their pronunciation in Libyan Arabic, with Benghazi renamed to Banghazi, Sirte to Surt, Tobruk to Tubruq, and Tripoli to Trablis, among others

-With a longstanding shortage of housing, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi is tasked with heading a new public housing project to provide new apartments to the younger generations and end the overcrowding of urban apartment blocks. This is easily the most well received of any of the recent initiatives, as many youths are desperate to have their own homes, and it provides a significant propaganda victory for the Third International Theory

-As these changes occur, Gaddafi’s African project soldiers on with a grandiose “Africa 2020” vision plan that would see the whole continent have a unified military and currency, along with free movement. While even achieving this by 2020 is an ambitious goal due to the relatively low levels of interest at the present time, there are more concrete intermediate steps proposed. Particularly, several nations express interest in an African Union Bank to eventually provide the central currency, and regional currencies to bridge the gap, particularly in east Africa as several nations there are already seeking further integration. The “Afro” currency proposal, which would be backed by oil, sees several objections from non oil-producing countries that feel they would have little control over the valuation. Attempts to move former French colonies away from the CFA Franc also run into opposition due to remaining economic ties with the former colonizer continuing to take precedence over sending a sending a message

-The Syrian people are desperate for water after years of drought creates persistent crop failures, and the time has come to seek an external solution to this problem. With a crumbling water infrastructure under massive strain, Assad calls upon his traditional allies in Moscow for assistance, and several Russian work brigades are set to the task of repairing urban water mains to reduce water leakage. In exchange, the Russian receive a valuable asset to their limited power projection, the right to expand its small port facility at Tartus. Currently, it is not known to what extent Putin plans to take advantage of this offering

-Water is also rationed for the first time, primarily in the urban areas where water is not as essential for agriculture. Basic daily water usage limits are imposed on buildings based on their purpose and occupancy, forcing residents and landlords to limit their water consumption or face fines that may potentially lead to cutoff. Naturally, corruption finds a way in this situation, and it is suspected that some property owners have managed to buy off officials to change some digits in their water consumption figures

-With abundant sunlight, another effort to increase the water supply focuses on desalination on the coast. Near the coast city of Latakia, several massive greenhouses are constructed for the purpose of a solar desalination process as seawater is pumped into them and subjected to the natural water cycle in a controlled environment. The thousands of gallons of water this facility produces are a drop in the bucket overall, but the process can be replicated and the need for water is great enough to make it somewhat viable economically

-Even with these efforts, food prices continue to rise to the point that the government begins to set price caps on essential foods and enforce strict prison sentences for anyone engaged in price gouging. This initiative is generally popular, but it drives many markets to offer black market “backroom deals” on remaining stock once the shelves are emptied, a practice that cannot be stopped without painstakingly searching the backrooms of shops or going undercover

-The government also presses down its hand on landlords, requiring them to accept extended grace periods for overdue rent and regulations on the rate at which rent can be increased and how often this can occur. These measures also prove to be quite popular with an increasingly urbanized population burdened by rent, many of them refugees. However, it does cause its own drags on the larger economy as reduced incentive leads to fewer residential construction projects

-Syria’s difficult situation may not be solved by simple provision of food, water, and shelter alone. Political and sectarian tensions must also be solved, and elements of the Assad government begin to perceive that their close ties to Hezbollah are alienating the Sunni majority, even if they have consistently portrayed this relationship as strictly an anti-Israel alliance. For this reason, contact with Hezbollah emissaries is reduced, though the Baathists deny they are abandoning the militant group outright

-Still feeling the population strain of the massive refugee influx from Iraq, Assad orders the military to take the drastic step of turning back all refugees from the war-torn nation, declaring that the most dangerous phase of the insurgency has ended and Iraqis are sufficiently safe in their own country. The vast numbers of refugees already in Syria begin to feel their place in Syrian society threatened, though very few are convinced to go back home

-As the Turkish campaign against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and their new Libyan allies signals a major escalation of that old conflict, this border initiative is expanded to prevent the conflict from spilling over with the possibility of PKK fighters taking refuge among Syrian Kurds. New watchtowers and razorwire fences are built along the border, especially in Kurdish areas. This causes significant agitation among Kurdish communities that regularly cross the border, as they are subjected to intense scrutiny in their movements, but so far it seems to be effective in its intended purpose of keeping the insurgents out

-The PKK scores a diplomatic coup as it receives diplomatic recognition and overt support from Libya, including its first ever recognized territory in the form of an embassy in Tobruk. Hailed as fellow socialists by Gaddafi, this recognition leads to diplomatic retaliation by Turkey against the Libyans and hard retaliation against the Kurds. Increased patrols by the Turks lead to several small skirmishes that kill dozens of PKK fighters, and checkpoints are erected that restrict movement within the Kurdish regions of Turkey. Movement into Kurdish regions of Syria is increasingly restricted as well, as the Syrians up their border defenses to keep out PKK agitators and prevent matters from spilling over onto their soil

-With tensions rising, the PKK continues to increase its reliance on training camps in Iraqi Kurdistan, where they can blend in and the autonomous government takes minimal measures against them. The rural and mountainous expanses of the region are a fertile ground for these camps, and the Kurdistan Regional Government has limited capacity to police here. There are concerns Turkey may take its campaign across the border if the PKK cannot be reasonably suppressed, something the Iraqi federal government indicates it would strongly oppose

-In a series of covert meetings with other leftist groups, believed to include Maoist, Hoxhaist, and mainline Marxist-Leninist organizations, the PKK discuss the possibility of an alliance or merger. While dogmatic differences remain too significant to merge outright, they do all agree not to seek separate peace with the government and to coordinate actions on occasion, as well as sharing safehouses and some resources where appropriate. This will no doubt increase the PKK’s flexibility in the coming years, as it continues to take the fight to the whole of Turkey and beyond. As expected, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks turn down the invitation, as old blood they have with the PKK remains hot

-Inviting several well-known western journalists to remote safe houses or meeting them in European hideouts, the PKK gives a series of presentations on Turkish abuses intended to sway public opinion. Destroyed villages and lists of missing persons abducted or executed by the Turkish government in its fight against the PKK are presented to the journalists, sending the message that western powers should stop arming the Turkish Republic. While it helps nudge public opinion in European countries, particularly among leftist parties there, Turkey’s overall contribution to NATO and its other geopolitical values continue to take precedent in the various parliament halls and cabinets across Europe for now

-While experienced in smuggling in small arms such as assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades, the PKK have long sought effective artillery to allow them to carry out attacks at more substantial range and against fortifications. The solution to this problem comes in the form of the “Mount Ararat” heavy mortar, so-named for comparisons to the famous volcano made during demonstrations of the weapon. Improvised from pipes of around 150 millimeters in diameter, these weapons fire equally improvised projectiles that may be based on regular artillery shells or modified explosives such as propane tanks. Hazardous to the user almost as much as to the enemy, militants quickly devise ways to remotely trigger the weapon to fire. Cheap and mainly used to initiate an ambush, these cannons are generally left behind after use to preserve the insurgents’ mobility after delivering a wallop to the Turks

 

[Amfleet]

A Single Gust From the Winds of Change

Street Vendors in Tunis

16 December 2010

Tunis, Tunisia

It is late at night when Mohamed Bouazizi approaches a bank branch to take out a small loan of only US$200.00. The Tunisian street vendor is once again broke, the product of years of police harassment that sees his food cart regularly seized and held for a bribe or confiscated outright. It is not the first time he has been this destitute, and next morning he will try again to recover his debt, using the loaned money to buy new produce to prepare and sell.

At 10:30 the next morning, the police are back to ruin his business once again. This time they are led by a female officer by the name of Faida Hamdi, who claims Bouazizi has no permit for his cart, despite Tunisian law requiring no such permit to sell from street carts. The two have met before, and Hamdi does not hesitate in publicly humiliating him, slapping him and spitting on him before confiscating his scales and overturning the cart, even uttering a slur against his deceased father as she does so. This humiliation from a woman is a particularly strong embarrassment in Arab society.

Bouazizi makes one last attempt to deal with the government, making his way to the governor’s office to demand his expensive scales be returned to him. Despite threatening suicide if he is not heard, the governor refuses him an audience. Less than an hour after the original altercation, the street vendor follows through with his threat. Standing in the middle of a busy street, he shouts "How do you expect me to make a living?" before dousing himself in gasoline and setting himself alight.

The blaze will not stop with him.

 

[Amfleet]

Turn 2: Spark

1 July- 31 December 2010



Regional Events

-Libya’s diplomatic feud with Switzerland draws to an anticlimactic close as Swiss businessmen accused of espionage are released back to their home country. Meanwhile, tensions with Turkey and much of the western community remain high, especially as Gaddafi strikes new deals with the Iranians

-Morocco’s monarchy takes a double blow, first as voters in its Southern Provinces endorse independence in the first round of voting despite significant new investments and campaigning. Nearly simultaneously, a series of US diplomatic cables is released on Wikileaks accusing the whole royal family of significant corruption related to the booming real estate market

-The Kurdish conflict increases in its intensity as fighters loyal to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party launch new attacks against the Turks and continue to increase pro-Kurdish sentiments both at home and as far away as Europe. Turkey continues efforts to suppress these militants while Syria launches raids against extremists of all stripes, including the Kurds

-The clock continues to tick down towards Egypt’s most significant political event of the 21st century, and the government is keeping itself busy “making Egypt ready for democracy.” Several political parties emerge that clearly signal the kind of choice voters will be asked to make next March. Currently in the lead is the Freedom and Justice Party, an Islamist party that is officially unrelated to the Muslim Brotherhood but has undeniable links to this proscribed organization. Diametrically opposed to them is the Free Egyptians Party, a secular liberal party positioning itself as the big tent alternative. However, a newcomer is on the rise in this mix. The Islamic Party of Egypt preaches select Islamic principles palatable even to non-believers, such as alms for the poor, but is practically a secular moderate party that the FEP accuses of attempting to undermine its base of support. Led by Ahmed Shafik, time will tell if the IPE will strike the right balance in the political spectrum or be dismissed as regime holdouts

-Perhaps hoping to leave his mark on the impressionable youth before slipping into the past, Mubarak authorizes more resources for the university system, particularly for facilities construction and educational programs. This allows the universities to expand enrollment while also giving students opportunities to do things such as study abroad at a wider variety of foreign universities as the exchange of tuition becomes more comparable to foreign universities

-Knowing that the legitimacy of the upcoming election could be undermined significantly if corruption continues at its current scale, a new anti-corruption task force is selected from among some of the newer and more promising officers of the police forces. These officers are given a mandate to investigate political and economic corruption, leading to several minor arrests by year’s end. Though they are certainly motivated, much of the corruption is within the police force itself, meaning experienced dirty cops and their business affiliates can easily outmaneuver the idealistic rookies

-Seeking a favorable conclusion to its dispute with Israel over Egyptian troop levels in the Sinai, Egyptian diplomats approach the United States Congress for permission to purchase MQ-1 Predator UCAV to increase their surveillance capabilities in the Sinai. After talking this over with Israeli lobbyists, Senators agree to permit the sale of dozens of unarmed models, allowing Egypt to increase its unmanned aerial forces and retire outdated Scarab UAVs

-Another technology that will be a boon to the Egyptian Army’s ability to conduct counter-insurgent warfare is the purchase of the Tank Urban Survival Kit (TUSK) for Egyptian-produced M1 Abrams tanks. These kits benefit the tank in both conventional and counter-insurgent warfare, adding such features as thermal optics, a remote controlled .50 M2, and additional armor on the sides and rear, increasing the versatility and survivability of the vehicle

-While these tools will be helpful in a counter-insurgent offensive, a new defensive system is coming online to defend Egyptian bases and convoys from the growing threat of IEDs and VBEDs. The “Ra” is an aerostat that is anchored in the dozens across the Sinai and near a variety of sensitive sites. Combining the simplicity of a balloon with modern camera and focused signal jamming equipment, each Ra is able to see activity within a ten-kilometer radius in open terrain. If a possible IED or car bomb is picked up by its operator, a powerful jammer can be focused on the target that disrupts cellular connections and blasts radio noise on a wide spectrum. Of course, the system partially relies on human eyes, giving crafty terrorists the possibility to slip past

-Egypt similarly reaches out to the United Kingdom, not for equipment, but rather for training. Currently a handful of Egyptian officers are picked to go to the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst every year, but with the next class this will be increased to as many as 50, increasing the number of graduates Egypt brings back from this prestigious school of war

-The new drones are soon put to work as the security services order a comprehensive review of the Suez canal’s defenses from terrorist attack. Fearful of services of this vital international trade route and major revenue source being disrupted by irregular forces, efforts are made to combat perceived weaknesses. As destroying the canal is improbable, new measures are taken to protect the ships themselves from being attacked or bombed, and particularly to ensure that no ship is mined and made into a blockship, a potential disaster for canal operations

-Returning to civilian developments, the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy signs a contract with Luxor Solar of Germany to import a huge number of solar panels for use in the western deserts. The intention of this move is to free up more domestic oil and gas production for export, as the panels should be able to replace up to 10% of Egypt’s energy needs within three years, one of the largest per capita investments in solar energy worldwide to date

-As the Libyans feud with Switzerland, Iran wastes no time in swooping into a new business opportunity. The diplomatic crisis may be quickly solved, but Libya makes clear that for all future business it would rather go with Shiite Iran than do business with the Swiss who have incensed Gaddafi so greatly. While both economies are oil-centric, Iran’s is more diverse, and to a limited extent can help wean the Libyans off the west in the purchase of medical supplies and other general goods, all in exchange for desperately needed cash and gold bonds

-Sensing similar opportunity with its close ally Syria, Iran delivers significant food aid to the famine-stricken nation, as well as genetically modified seeds that will help put Syria on the road to recovery. The famine is already beginning to lessen in intensity with a stronger crop this year, and the seeds will surely improve conditions further next year. In exchange, a slice of the Syrian Arab Army’s bloated stores of Soviet tanks and artillery are transferred to the Iranians, further weaning them off pre-1979 American stocks

-Bringing Indian and Pakistani negotiators to the table, Iran arranges the construction of the “South Asian Peace Highway”, a new superhighway project that will focus on creating a high-capacity road link between the three nations. Originating in Shiraz and passing through Bandar Abbas and Hyderabad before terminating in Mumbai, the highway will increase connectivity with the outside world once it reaches its projected completion in 2015. Whether it will allow the Iranians to more easily flout American sanctions is yet to be seen

-Efforts to get more support from other American adversaries such as Russia and China are less fruitful, as the major players do not see Iran so much as an ally but a nation that may become momentarily convenient to aid in riling up the United States, something neither are in a hurry to do at the moment, with Russia in particular having just spent political capital on war with Georgia. Some small trade deals on civilian technologies are drawn up, however, and the door remains open for Iran to take their side in a future East-West confrontation

-Under instructions from the Parliament, the sparse few digital technology companies in Iran are required to install backdoors in all their products for the purpose of tracking anyone engaged in counter-revolutionary behavior, while also turning over their user data to the security services upon request. Though this has little impact due to the vast majority of devices being imported and the widespread use of VPNs, it raises the spectre of a possible future ban on foreign devices without such backdoors

-Efforts to become autarkic continue as Iran’s industrial developments continue their focus on the essentials, though the definition of essential has changed rapidly in the last few decades. Among more mundane developments, Iran Electronics Industries, the longtime state defense electronics manufacturer, sees significant expansion to begin building civilian computing devices. These Linux-based computers are unimpressive by Western standards, but are a major step on the path to economic independence without giving up too many modern amenities

-Iran is one of the most enthusiastic and longest-running users of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs), having been one of the first nations to use drones in direct combat in the Iran-Iraq War by mounting RPG-7s on the wings. The Ayatollah pays tribute to those primitive but revolutionary operations in the 1980s as the much more sophisticated Shahed 129 is revealed to the world. Very similar in appearance to the American MQ-1 Predator (and having the same engine), the Shahed 129 carries cameras and Sadid-345 guided glide bombs, and represents the most significant advance in Iranian UCAV capability to date

-Seeking to show that he is earnest in his intention to honor the referendum results, the King orders the demilitarization of the Southern Provinces, slowly withdrawing Moroccan troops. In the months leading up to the referendum, Polisario Front rebels do not openly cross the line in the sand agreed by the ceasefire agreement, but begin to move covertly more often, growing in confidence that the Moroccans will not attempt to hold the area by force

-With phosphate being located and extracted at a pace not yet before seen, the agriculture ministry seeks to turn the benefits over to Moroccan farmers and offer cheaper, domestically produced fertilizers. Foreign suppliers begin to be pushed out of this market after huge amounts of this fertilizer saturates the market, leading to an encroaching state monopoly on a market that supports the crucial agricultural sector

-Securing an agreement with Kosmos Energy, exploration vessels begin searching for oil and gas off the coast of Western Sahara. Current agreements with the UN strictly forbid extracting anything found there “without the consent of the local peoples”, but the Moroccans hope to secure a referendum outcome in their favor, which they would interpret as granting this consent

-With thin healthcare infrastructure outside urban areas, Moroccan officials consult with the International Red Crescent to find ways to plug the gap. This leads to several new rural clinics being constructed across the nation, which are able to provide limited medical services but also act as a point of contact for ambulance services in from more developed areas of the country

-The expansion of services into rural areas and the Southern Provinces is further aided as new railway routes are surveyed and begin construction to connect more remote villages and phosphate mines. Many will in time connect to the Al-Boraq high speed rail network, which is on its way to becoming Africa’s first bullet train by the end of the decade

-These actions serve to boost the King’s pro-unification message, one he delivers in person with high security in a bus-stop tour of the Southern Provinces. A “Morocco Better Together” campaign claims that an independent government would condemn the young nation to poverty, while a unified nation would redouble its efforts to develop the territory. As many turn out to support the king, others protest, and at least one shoe strikes the bus

-In spite of these efforts, December’s events are a double-whammy to Moroccan prestige. After setting up extensive polling sites across the Southern Provinces, the people of this restive region go to the polls and narrowly back independence by a 52.5% margin. While this is a blow to the wishes of the state, another round is still required per the terms of the agreement, and the narrow result means that Morocco still has a shot at holding on

-Also in December, a series of American diplomatic cables regarding the Moroccan royal family are published on whistleblowing website Wikileaks. The cables allege massive corruption within the royal family involving use of state institutions to solicit bribes from the massively profitable real estate sector, all carried out through a massive holding company controlled directly by the king and two powerful associates. The allegations inflame privately held suspicions among the populace about the royal family’s wealth, though nothing has come of it for now

-Hoping to ease these tensions caused by these revelations, King Mohammed VI organizes a significant anti-corruption drive, striking out at nepotism and bribery across “all levels of government.” Though this helps to lower the tensions somewhat, it is unknown if the claims of corruption at the very top will be answered

-As the Libyans feud with Switzerland, Iran wastes no time in swooping into a new business opportunity. The diplomatic crisis is quickly solved after the Swiss businessmen are released back to their homeland, but Libya makes clear that for all future business it would rather go with Shiite Iran than do business with the Swiss who have incensed Gaddafi so greatly. While both economies are oil-centric, Iran’s is more diverse, and to a limited extent can help wean the Libyans off the west in the purchase of medical supplies and other general goods, all in exchange for desperately needed cash and gold bonds

-As African desertification continues largely unchecked, Gaddafi once again puts a series of ambitious initiatives before the African Union. The first of these is a “Great Green Wall” of oasis developments that will stretch from the Gambia to Djibouti, creating an artificial means of containing the Sahara’s advance into the Sahel. All nations involved agree to the principle of this project, though as few have the funding to carry out its full scope, only a few small projects stick their shovels in the sand

-The other is a colossal railway and highway project to fully connect the African continent in all directions. Governments across the continent agree to continue improving their road and rail infrastructure, but the cost of the full proposed project makes it more or less a pipe dream for now. Uniting the African railways will be particularly challenging, not only for the vast spaces in between them, but the wide variety of different gauges used by African railways. It may be best to start with the near realm of North Africa, which all uses British Standard Gauge

-No matter how things proceed abroad, Libya makes its own progress at home. Tracks are laid for Libya’s first railway since 1965, with Chinese contractors surveying and clearing a route from Sirte to Benghazi. Road widenings also begin, as the oil rich nation will not be abandoning cars and trucks as a primary mode of transportation for a long time to come

-Following an attack by Congolese Mai-Mai rebels that results in the deaths of three Indian UN soldiers, Gaddafi wades into the Kivu conflict with an offer to mediate peace, positioning himself as the “foremost Islamic leader in Africa”, a statement which leaves a few others hot under the collar. Talks are arranged, but quickly break down as the DRC government and its allies see little need to make concessions to the Islamists, viewing any allowance as a slippery slope

-In a shakeup of the government, Mohamed Abu al-Qasim al-Zwai is demoted from his office as the General Secretary of the General Peoples’ Congress, the official head of state of Libya. No reason is provided for the change, which sees Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi put in his place. While this is a small but high profile change in Libya’s politics, it leads many in the populace to worry the dictator is about to tighten his grip further until an official explanation is given for this change

-With an increasing interest in Pan-Africanism comes an increasing need for power projection, and for Gaddafi, this means updating the Air Force and Navy with more modern equipment. Four Buyan-class corvettes and a dozen Su-27 multirole fighters are ordered from Russian suppliers to bolster these arms of the military. The Air Force also receives several more Mi-35 attack helicopters for its fleet, an aircraft feared by insurgents everywhere

-With its military being a huge expense for the nation at a time of relative peace, Assad takes the unexpected move of abolishing conscription for all branches of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces, shifting to make the SAAF a professional force. Conscripts who do not volunteer are sent home, though those that remain are given a wage increase and only required to stay on for a two-year term of duty at a time. Until Assad knows what type of conflict Syria will face next, he will not know if this move will pay off

-Knowing it will take more than just wages to professionalize the armed forces, and with the Air Force long the favorite military branch of the Assads, Bashar once again tugs on the sleeves of the Russians and requests a joint pilot training program. With this agreed, dozens of pilots are sent far from the hot deserts to Engels-2 Airbase in western Russia to train with their counterparts on lessons learned from the recent war in Georgia

-If anyone believes that the shrinking size of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces means Assad is backing down, they are quickly proven wrong. Dozens of SA-2 and SA-11 missile sites are set up in the Syrian-controlled portion of the Golan Heights, along with new defensive fighting positions. Israel calls the move a violation of its sovereign airspace as the missiles have range well into Israel proper, but largely brushes off the provocation with veiled references to the 1982 bombing in the Bekaa Valley

-Sensing opportunity with its close ally Syria, Iran delivers significant food aid to the famine-stricken nation, as well as genetically modified seeds that will help put Syria on the road to recovery. The famine is already beginning to lessen in intensity with a stronger crop this year, and the seeds will surely improve conditions further next year. In exchange, a slice of the Syrian Arab Army’s bloated stores of Soviet tanks and artillery are transferred to the Iranians, further weaning them off pre-1979 American stocks

-Fearing Kurdish or Islamist instability from the Sunni majority, new crackdowns are ordered on suspected extremists. The police force is kept extremely busy turning over every stone and arresting hundreds of suspects, and more or less ignores the growing black market, with officers often barrelling their way through black market businesses and leaving once no evidence of terroristic activity is found

-Fortunately, more legitimate sources of food are also becoming available to the Syrian populace, as Syrian researchers toy with newly imported GMO crops from Iran. With a hot climate, grains have genes copied from dates that grow in low-water farms outside Bandar Abbas. The result is a substantial increase in bread production, which will go a long way as the famine of six years seems to be drawing to a close

-Much of the bread produced will end up in several different state-run homeless shelters that Assad orders built in major cities across the nation to provide short-term relief to the nation’s poorest. It is hoped that this will help keep desperate people off the streets where they could be drawn into terror organizations, and instead put them in an environment free of these influences

-Efforts to win over the European public to the Kurdish cause continue as sympathizers hold protests in several major European cities, distributing literature and waving flags outside Turkish diplomatic quarters. By now they have gained the attention of several Eurocommunist politicians, who frequently attend the rallies and primarily use them as a platform to oppose further moves towards Turkish integration into the EU, though public awareness of Kurdish suppression is increasing. Erdogan, on the other hand, has no hesitation to mobilize his own supporters, and clashes on the streets of cities like Paris and Berlin result on several occasions

-PKK actions make extensive use of social media to try and unify the Kurdish cause under their banner, with posts that target Kurdish youth and other groups that might be receptive to their message. The aim is to create a united front across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, though most of their success comes in Turkey and Iraq as most social networks are blocked in Iran. Furthermore, the crackdown against Kurdish autonomy groups in Syria limits the reach of these messages, often for fear of being caught viewing them. Still, more left-wing Kurdish elements in all regions begin to coalesce around the PKK’s general message in calling for a fully united Kurdistan

-The physical struggle against the Turks also intensifies, as IED and mortar attacks centered around the Mount Ararat heavy mortar are carried out across the southeast, leading to tens of casualties. In one particularly noteworthy incident, one of the heavy mortars directly strikes a PARS armored vehicle outside the village of Uludere, flattening it and showing the weapon’s surprising effectiveness against armored vehicles due to the sheer mass of its projectile

-Hackers sympathetic to the PKK find a way to compromise SIM cards stolen from Turkish cell network providers, allowing them to be put into any phone that will fit them without needing proper activation. This will not only save funds, but allow the PKK to communicate with less tracing from the authorities, as well as continuing to use cell-phone based IEDs

-Even as the cause advances, the PKK feels the pressure from increasing police raids and surveillance, particularly at safe houses. Fearful of losing too many fighters from a single blow by the state, new safe houses are chosen or built based on a standard of housing only 4-6 freedom fighters and their equipment at a time. The increased dispersal does little to thwart Turkish tactics overall, but goes a long way to cut damage, and with communications between cells improving, the impact is virtually nil